COVID19 and National Lockdown

COVID19 and National Lockdown

The impact of lock down would be far more severe than the actual infection of COVID19. By the time we defeat COVID, we will, perhaps, lose an economic war. Lockdown will prove itself to be a torpedo out of which a recovery is not very easy. There also will be a huge gap between extremely poor and middle class, unlike the earlier rich and poor. The middle class will largely constitute public servants and middle level corporate workers, who are unaffected by the lockdown in terms of their regular income.

In modern medicine, there is no drug for targeted treatment of the infection caused by the novel corona virus named COVID19. The attempts are on vigorously in labs. Currently, some of the medicines with indications for immunity building would resist the fission of virus and control the disease. The infection is treated with combination of immunity building dosages and drugs intended for other diseases like malaria are used for the treatment. Of late, leprosy medicine is repurposed for modulated immuno therapy. COVID 19 victims with co-morbidity easily succumb to the infection, hence it is said the mortality rate is too high. But in India, the mortality rate is not too high to worry about. But the spread of the infection in extremely rapid pace gives a big challenge to health workers as well as the society. This is the only area we need to worry much for the time being. Still, centuries old and doubtless traditional medicine medicines of India, which proved their efficacy in dealing with similar virus infection through a holistic approach, are untested. This stream of medicine could have taken care of the co-morbidity also. That was not considered as we blindly follow methods, which  are followed abroad. Many patients take too long a period as a month, putting healthcare workers under pressure. Here we have lost our wisdom and committed the first mistake.

China, the original source of the virus, declared local local-down as a measure of containment. The virus was not transported elsewhere within China. The countries which have gone for blind lockdown did not look at what China did. But who believes China, which finally declared a revised number of mortality with 50 per cent increase in the number? Rest of the world imitated the model without blocking their airways against China. The travellers arriving from foreign sources, where China might have had, some or the other ways, a touch. They were not screened and quarantined. China reported Covid19 in December 19, though there were reports that Wuhan had its first case in September in that year. World can’t help but to believe what China wants to. Then the world has its own options to exercise without chasing what China has done, after all reliability on it is known to be feeble. India followed China's Wuhan action in greater degree by locking down the country as a whole without much home work. The infection was generalized. That was the second major mistake India did.

India hence declared a 21-day total shut-down on 24th March seemingly in a hurry, after an undeclared partial lockdown in some Covid19 spotted parts of India. The day was just a week before  the fiscal year to close. The strict lockdown brought everything on standstill abruptly keeping people where they were; some stranded to face uncertainty and gloom. That had triggered a major crisis but people had to chew it. By the end of the first phase, the picture became darker and the experiment did not deliver desired results. That was unexpected. The end of the second phase saw the severity escalating, compelling the government to extend the lockdown much to the dismay of people. The picture indicated our failure somewhere, besides a huge economic loss out of the lockdown. Now we are holding a red-hot steel rode. That showed our third mistake.

We could have avoided complete lockdown and reduced so bad an adverse impact, had we applied some prudence. Even if we didn't lockdown fully, the number of Covid19 would have been the same, as we see now. It seemed the government did not make any calculation of the impact and underestimated the spread of Covid19. The number of patients kept going up several folds from 600 at the time lockdown began. The number has reached nearly 42,0000 and still counting every day. There is no indication of the cure flattening. Large cities like Mumbai, Delhi, Ahmedabad, Chennai, etc are groping in dark. The situation has reached a serious level. Things are further worsening in India’s financial capital. These showed something went seriously wrong. The government made a huge miscalculation, the fourth biggest mistake.

By keeping the lockdown almost undiluted or allowing, which are not necessities, the government is repeating the mistake. The government should have taken a calculated step and decentralised the responsibility by allowing industries to take risk of protecting their workers at their premises. But it should  have allowed industries to work. This could have partially averted at least economic fallout. Now the government is talking about containment zones, while lockdown is forced on people. A focus on containment zones alone would have worked well and avoided a wasteful national level lockdown.

Now as the fear rises, containment becomes a big challenge with measures that would not disturb normal life. Healthcare workers are also confused. The easiest way considered thus was to shut-down and stay at home to maintain a social distancing. This confused people who are at safe regions. People think only about their freedom, which they will not allow the government to snatch. Any pressure on them for long period would be construed as dictatorship, which people will not tolerate. This may even lead to a massive social  rebellion.

People see each other in a suspicious manner now. No one goes to densely crowded places for fear of infection. The pandemic has curtailed the human tendency of staying with social contacts. The government directive of social distancing, hence, has put pressure a lot of pressure on people. People nowadays are not afraid of robbers and thieves, but fear coughing or sneezing persons. The panic is more of psychological than real. Though we need to be precautious, we face an exaggerated fear and threat of prolonged lock-down. What would happen, if the lock-down goes for two or four months more? The poverty will add to the corona crisis. There is also a fear of violence and riots, when poverty erupts.

The lockdown has created immense economic disturbance and the damage cannot be easily repaired, if no drastic step is taken. On one side, we have millions of young ones losing jobs and many people with fear of no salary for lockdown period due to the depleting financials of a large number small companies, our public servants, except the policemen, health workers and other departments, are unmoved with the crisis. The government should have suspended their salary too for the entire period of lockdown. None of the servants will go starving, as they generally take home huge salary for works they never complete on time to serve people. If not, they should have been redeployed to work at home to provide services to public. Once the lockdown is lifted, they will slowdown their work with an excuse of huge work volume delivering further difficulties to public.

When something happens, we habitually do something in haste in an effort to rectify it. A disaster of this size required a discreet action plan. We cannot take a chance, that will probably be counter-productive. For the government that was the easy step believing that it would save itself from a possible backlash of delayed action. Sometimes, we are forced to set aside a wise decision for unwise results. This is what seems to have happened in our Covid19 management. The only relief is that, till now, India is in far more safe than developed nations in terms of infection and mortality. But there is a difference in the economic strength between the nations which are hit more severely and India being a deficit economy. 

The continued lockdown is set to dismay a large section of people, as still there is an uncertainty about their future livelihood. The uncertainty about the situation being back to normalcy continues.  Now there is a growing fear everywhere. None dares to predict when to resume their work and start receiving something to meet their both ends. Sitting inside locked home many are gasping. Each one faces a situation that is not different from what Robinson Crusoe had faced.

Companies’ streams are halted. No one knows when they will be able to return to normalcy. Some of the businesses have already lost their peak sales time. Unlike the localised calamities or even ravages of war, this lockdown is a universal lockdown, ever unthinkable in the industrialised world.

However, is that the only way to fight the war against Covid19? Another pertinent question is; should we be worried so much about this virus and take such an extensive precaution at the cost of letting the economy bleed? The cost of this on socio-economy cannot be ascertained as we may not be able to count the ultimate impact of job loss for millions and business closure for lakhs of small units. The cost we pay in this exaggerated war against corona is too high that is unwarrantable. Let’s say Covid19 is just like any other virus infection with somewhat high degree of spreading for which we need to pay some extra caution.

Without overlooking the compulsions of suitable measures, the world should have explored more sagacious alternatives to the total shutdown. Well-known experts make their own points as per their views. Less known experts also contribute their share to the news formation. Information platforms, functioning like huge public wastebaskets, carry everything, looking at no merits. People read and share them. The worst of the news, the baseless and disastrous, flies faster than wild fire.

Though not an expert, I am confident with my own reasons, has said things may not be as bad as we fear, as the government and optimists seem to believe. When Indian economy is reviewed on the basis of what happens around the world, despite the fact that India's share of the world trade is not substantial, the emerging picture may be grim. The Indian economy is globalised. But India hardly used to carry all the adverse impacts of global economic slowdown, mainly because of lower share in the global trade. In fact, India used to find an advantage of lower oil price when the global economy enters recession. But in the present situation, it is the non-functional business for months that would harm India not any other reason. The question of economic resilience has relevance, when the entire business remains bolted down.

Many people, after reading so many junks and connecting them with their inner fears, tell me things are worsening, but there is a long term hope. But how do we overcome the present challenge to remain alive and fetch the benefit of turnaround? Things may be worsening no doubt about it and could be worst, if the lockdown continues illogically. People are heavily tensed about fear of job loss. Non-resident Indians who make remittance of billions of dollars, are facing job loss, which will force them to return home. I am afraid, at least 10 million Indians will return home, if no magical turnaround happens in the global economy. Chance of this is grim. Some segments like travel and tourism, trades of luxury items including sales of vehicles, urban housing etc. have lost their business entirely, throwing out more people jobless.

I firmly believe, further delay in lifting lockdown will jeopardise everything, including a possible opportunity to pick up the space that China is gradually denied by some economies in the world. I see a new world order shaping up, discarding the predominant orders, which used to control the world. To retain this opportunity, we need to think of ending the lockdown at the earliest allowing factories to work and people to move. Before closely looking at how the lockdown in India and Covid19 crisis in all the major economies in the world and consequently how the Indian economy would be impacted, we may also see strength and emerging opportunities for the Indian economy. But we need to shed our colonial mindset and be more liberal with our rules that look at business with an unreasonable animosity.

There is no harm in allowing small companies with less than, say 25 workers, to open at their own risk and cost. Let the government fix responsibility on individuals and companies, which are willing to open and make their workers work. Every individual is concerned about his or her own risk. There is no need of forcing a person to adopt safety steps. In such context, locking down so tightly in the style of martial order, yet with no significant gain, is a wrong dictation. This will prove to be counter-productive. Interestingly, when everything is ordered to close, liquor shops are allowed to open even in red zones along with provision, milk and medical shops. If liquor shops are allowed, why small companies will lower size of workers? It is funny that the government, which allowed liquor shops to open, stopped online sales. If banks and post offices are allowed to function, what is wrong with online sales? This is another thoughtless actions of the government. The  public is deeply unhappy with such imprudent steps.

Covid19 is not like other natural calamities like flood or earthquake. Government and insurance are not required to shell out much for repairing the damage. In natural calamities, the losses are heavier at multi level and industries need time to rebuild. In lockdown there is no time lapse for rebuilding and restarting the business. But the time lost is a loss for ever. For many businesses like hospitality, tours and travels, the time loss is irrecoverable. These segments are highly labour-intensive. The summer holidays usually fill their pockets. The ultimate sufferers, therefore, are not only the business owners, but also the labourers, who stare at a long uncertainty. Thousands of micro ventures and self-employed ones have already lost their income sources. They are still not sure how long the lock-down will last. It is almost certain now that the entire summer is drawing blank for them. Their business is usually dormant in monsoon.

Exporters of non-medical products and other services related to their business also face similar uncertainty. Their uncertainty may last longer as they may need to wait for the world to eradicate the pandemic or complete lifting of lock-down. For other business like infrastructure building, industrial products, automobiles and host of other segments do not suffer much since the time loss is universal, which is mutually compromised by everyone concerned in the business. Churning a system of post World War II is naturally inevitable. No other way it can happen. In any other way had this happened, it would have been in 2008. But then too, it wouldn't have been so massively as we are being set in now.

When people face crisis, government has to come out with a solution. Now it is a multiple crisis – healthcare crisis and economic crisis. Internationally, the crisis has triple face – Corona disaster with thousands of mortality every day, their economy is bleeding with their surplus proving to be insufficient for meeting the welfare needs of people and China’s fishing in the dirty waters amidst COVID19. In Europe and America governments seem to have stopped counting the tolls. But they have begun to lift lockdowns in areas, where number of COVID 19 victims are less. India must emulate the model and lift lockdown from locations where infection is not recorded. Infected pockets can be closed tightly and where healthcare workers must be sent to take care of the victims. By locking down the locations where infection is not noted, COVID19’s adverse impact on economy is made more disastrous.

Post-COVID19 the world will not be the same. A new economic world order will emerge. The economic world will have to divide the history as Before Corona (BC) and After Disease (AD). Optimists see the AD as the era of India. But can we really make it so without government leniency, stopping tax exploitations and ending redtapism? If we need to convert the Covid19 adversity into an opportunity, we need the government to stop its calculation of over-milking the small cows in the name of cess and ordering its bureaucracy to set timetable for delivering public services.

It seems the Prime Minister failed  to read the public mind in realistic way, but carried away by overconfidence. By the end of the second phase of lockdown, he seems to have got the pulse of reality. That is why, as people believe, the Prime Minister hasn't appeared for declaring the third phase lockdown. States have been given the task, which will only lead some sections to negotiate with for permission of opening. Let's take the  case of liquor sales, which are allowed now, while other business is surprisingly disallowed. No sensible person can understand the necessity of the liquor sales at the time the infection is soaring. But every sensible person can make out the backdoor influence or lobby works. 

All other horses are tired now. If our government further fails to work with a wisdom, by correcting the mistake of lockdown as well as the serious of lacuna in its actions, the entire economic war horses will die. Let no milking cows be butchered for self interest or for mindless plans.