Wrong Covid-19 Estimates

Some people say, the SARS-CoV-2 widely known as Covid-19 pandemic has drastically reduce the reporting numbers of other diseases like common cold, cough, throat pain, fever, etc. Incidentally, these are the primary symptoms of the Chinese origin pandemic too. Treatment of the pandemic was guided by protocol set by the regulatory authority inline with what WHO suggested.   

Hence, local clinics and dispensaries across the country become desolate. Also because of its rapid transmission, even doctors at dispensary level have been afraid of taking any chance on apparently silly cases. Primary health centers have no role and no job, though they remain compulsorily open on an “emergency” duty. Pharmacies are restricted in selling pain-killers and anti-inflammation tablets without a registered medical practitioner's prescription. General practitioners are now sitting idle in their clinics. Reduction in the number of patients is indeed a good news! But what, if that is a calculation error or an error of structural adjustment?  Then it becomes only a joke. Indeed, a goofy joke!

Some experts' recent comments have struck me to think of certain realities. Like me, many other prudent minds also might have been provoked or been stormed with such strange discoveries. Let's be realistic and wise rather than being depended on conjectures and inconspicuous to believe every high ranking comment.

Covid19 screening begins with a temperature test using a highly sensitive infrared forehead gun. Every infectious disease begins with a fever, doctors know it better. In India, the monsoon is usually a season of fever and dysentery. Government run primary health centers, local dispensaries and general clinics become over-crowded as the monsoon sets in. Fever reaches the peak when the monsoon is on. There is no official record of how many fever cases are reported and recorded officially in India or in any country. I am also not sure whether any attempt is made by the government or local governing body to count the death by other widely common diseases like tuberculosis, typhoid, pneumonia or other long running bacterial or viral infections so vigorously as we see in the case of Covid-19. Every rise in the number delivers happy news to drug companies and others who could thrive on some changing public compulsions. Fever is just common, though that is the first indication of every fatal and nonfatal disease.

Now we hear some experts saying, the monsoon related viral fever has almost disappeared along with many other diseases. Hilarious comments. But I say, the seasonal fever hasn't disappeared. It has, in fact, merged with the cases of Covid-19. There is no other reason than this for the reduction in the fever cases. Almost all the fever is predetermined or suspected to be Covid-19 case and the delicate Covid-19 tests affirm the conclusion. Today, if a person visits a doctor with a fever, the patient would immediately be put to undergo the costly Covid-19 lab test. Majority of those who are tested ultimately result in being positive for the infection. Immediately, the patient's treatment-kit is ready. Once a patient is tested positive, the entire family members are dragged into the lab test, no matter whether they are symptomatic or asymptomatic. Either the full member or the majority of the members then become asymptomatic patients. I don’t know how rational it is to call a person asymptomatic of viral infection, if the person is quite normal throughout the days the virus could remain active in his cellular systems. In quarantine, the asymptomatic patients are assumed to “recover” within a fortnight or so.

Isolation of the asymptomatic patients and medication is not a sensible strategy. Many countries have reportedly adopted symptoms based approaches, but not test based. Nevertheless in India too, it is test based. Pathology test has become a big business with huge capital investment and network building. There have been reports of massive errors by some leading networked path-labs in their test reports, negative turning positive. Reliability of the test has been questioned. It ultimately questions basic medical ethics, as a wrong report leads to a critical toxicity in the victim. Yet, a common cough, cold and fever case is mandatorily tested for Covid-19. The result becomes safely presumable, at the end. The medical term asymptomatic is a blessing for the pharmaceutical industry.

Before the onset of the monsoon, some experts predicted the number of Covid19 cases to soar to an alarming size. It did, ultimately. Through the monsoon midway, the number of cases reported in India reached closer to two million. If the rate of increase remains every 20 days will add a million.  The death count is close to 40,000 and the number is still rising. Incidentally, most of the death hasn’t been because of Covid-19,but other drug induced diseases.  

The Covid-19 taught our healthcare system to count the daily numbers of infection and the mortality and also how to report hospital cases on a real time basis. That is a wonderful follow-up. The well-organised data compilation of new cases and mortality from each municipality level to the national level, internationally too, showed how national disease monitoring could be integrated and reported on a daily basis. We also need to report the last drug administered on each mortality case. That would expose the drug quality and disease management competence.

Covid-19 has taught us many things and warned us of being preventive with care and commonsense. But behind the scene there has been a plot. The disease fearing hapless masses have been terrified to transform themselves so that a transition into a new era would welcome a strange new world order dictated by business czars and the cleverest ones who could fox the people.

A Great Comedy of Errors that would teach us what are comedies and what are errors.