Pandemic: Whose ploy was this? - Eagles are active on aerial watch for cadavers

We have given ourselves into the mouth of those who plotted the Pandemic by our own miscalculation. A century ago, as World War-I ended, Spanish influenza that came to India by the name Bombay Fever devastated Mumbai (then Bombay) and Chennai (Madras). It spread rapidly all over the country like a wildfire. Close to 14 million people dismembered. The British India’s comparative population census between 1911 and 1921 had shown fall in population. The United States had seen a quarter of its population being stricken by the Spanish Influenza contracted from the war-field, but the death toll was far less than India’s. Indian counts were higher than what was reported from anywhere in the world. In the Covid-19 also, India is set to be the world’s worst sufferer.

Finally, India is closer to become the world's worst hit. Covid19 is not going to go away so easily. We had great optimism in the initial stage and even boasted about the slow spread of infection compared with the cases reported in many European countries and US. As we watched what was reported from other countries, we had hurriedly run for a cover in panic.   

We stayed inside our tightly bolted doors. That saved us from the summer heat. Roads were deserted after a couple of weeks of the lock-down order that immediately saw an exodus like scene, as migrant labourers were returning home in panic.  Then the spread of infection was slower. That was only a beginning. Then so much we talked about ourselves and tried to find comfort in the proportionately lower number of Covid19 infections in the earlier months. We compared our population density with the number of Covid19 cases to draw a line of comfort for ourselves. Now also that is the only excuse left for us to be comfortable.    

By August, five months after the strict lock-down, the Covid19 cases spiraled beyond our lawmakers' imagination. In April and May some statistics predicted India's numbers to jump manifolds. We felt that was a heavily exaggerated prediction and were not ready to subscribe to their views. Later, the prediction was proved to be only a conservative estimate. The actual number that started coming out was much higher. I stopped counting the meaningless daily numbers. Soon everyone will do it. Any size of escalation in the number of new cases may not be a surprising number.

No other country in the world has seen so strict a nation-wide lock-down that India has seen for so long a period. No other country in the world might have seen so massive a workers’ lay-off that we have seen in India. And no other country might have seen so much food grain distributed to so many people. I still believe, India has taken so many actions in a hurry in the name of managing the pandemic too early without sufficient preparation. In a democracy, an elected government is accountable to people for actions and failures equally. People will not forget their bad experience so easily. In a country of liberal press freedom with the practice of hunting for negative news, one day the secret of the pandemic tumult will come into the light. I am hopeful.       

Before that news-breaking day, we need to make an impact assessment of the blind orders to lock down the entire country, free ration distribution to 800 million people, cash transfers to poor women, Rs 20 trillion worth economic refueling, liberal loan and longer moratorium on repayment, etc with a thorough realistic sense. So many policy plans have to be put on hold. Infrastructure development, disinvestment plans, bad loan recovery plans of banks and so many other actions are in limbo. A pandemic could do everything worse that a normal war couldn't.

We could read what was reported as the first quarter GDP. Roughly a quarter was lost in the first quarter. Though free ration was not supposed to fuel economic growth, the cash transfers was supposed to create demands, liberal loans were supposed to restart small businesses and moratoriums were offered relief measures. All these were supposed to fire the economy in the long run. The Goldman Sachs has already predicted the Indian economy to be the worst hit. Let’s not go by other’s predictions but be realistic based on our own experience. The labour intensive construction segment was contracted by more than 50 per cent. The segment, except those sub-segments where force majure hasn’t been applicable, is now completely dormant. Even in those segments where force majure has been applicable, the plights of workers led to shut the work site. The things did not change even by early September.

The lock-down was an advantage for lazy people, whose incomes somehow have been steady. Lawmakers never suffer from any other disaster than their poll-rout for their own failure. Whoever be the lawmakers, they are, unfortunately, driven by the interests of the highly influential class. The highly influential class inherently has a capability to convert every disadvantage into an advantage. They could turn the tide of pandemic into their advantage. We see it all over the world, doing it for their advantage. The ruthless Chinese rulers and brutal pharmaceutical oligarchs have a field-day, thanks to WHO’s protocol. Unfortunately, India also borrowed the protocol template conceding its defeat to the ploy played by China and business oligarchs. We need to identify it and think more rationally about the present situation, instead of remaining afraid of the rising caseloads. Let’s stop counting and be practical.       

Tired of sitting at home, people are now out on the streets. Masks are gradually disappearing from the face of people. In proportion to the traffic density on roads, business sentiments didn't pick up. Hotels and restaurants are still largely closed. Construction sites still remain shut. Warehouses are getting empty. Demands also have gone down as people do not have enough to spend. Only the hospitals designated for Covid19 treatment and medicines chosen for treatments are running overcapacity and minting money, thanks to parochial protocol.

We need to revisit the last pandemic that happened a century ago. India was the worst and continued to suffer long after the original site obliterated the disease. Beginning 1918, Spanish Influenza made a quarter of the Americans sick over two years and an estimated 6.75 lakhs died in the US. Originated in the United States at the end of the First World War, the flu hit India too in the same year, as it traveled from Europe through the Indian soldiers who fought for the British ruler. In India, it was known as Bombay Fever as it originated from Mumbai, where soldiers landed after their war assignment. Started in June 1918 in Mumbai, it spread all over India in two months. The flu killed 14 million people in the British ruled India, the worst casualty in the world. God only knew whether the number was right or wrong. The basis of the calculation was said to be the difference between population census in 1911 and 1921. The British India's population fell considerably in the census of 1921 compared with the previous census. If the pandemic can repeat, a fear of anything similarly worse is not unreasonable, especially when eagles are active on aerial watch for cadavers.

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